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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

What can we do about global warming?

By UCAR (Univercity Corporation for Atmosphere Research)

There are two basic types of response to climate change. Mitigation is reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for climate change, so that less change occurs. Adaptation is dealing with the consequences of warming and other aspects of climate change, such as changes in extreme weather events.

Because some amount of climate change has already occurred, and more change is inevitable based on the greenhouse gases already emitted, society will need to adapt. Yet in order to prevent even more-extreme climate change from happening, mitigation will be required.

Policymakers are now examining these two types of responses, including how much attention and what resources to devote to each one and how to find a balance between mitigation and adaptation.

"Business as usual" is also a choice. This option saves expenditures for mitigation in the near term, but risks higher adaptation costs to wildlife, human populations, infrastructure, and economies later on. It also increases the odds of unforeseen consequences from unchecked climate change.

The 2007 IPCC report helps policymakers weigh these options. To promote discussion of policy choices in our democracy, NCAR's parent organization, UCAR, has joined with professional societies and other members of the atmospheric sciences community to offer policy-relevant Advice to the Administration and Congress: Making Our Nation Resilient to Severe Weather and Climate Change.

As impacts on natural systems are being felt, human adaptation is already happening on some fronts. Many insurance companies are examining their practices and taking climate change into account in setting their rates and their policies. Air conditioning is becoming more widespread in North America and Europe. Some communities on small islands are already making plans to abandon their homes due to rising sea levels. The fate of plants and animals that cannot readily adapt is being discussed.

The United States joined with many other nations in signing a treaty in 1994 known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UNFCCC, which has been ratified by 192 countries, recognizes that the climate system has no boundaries and that international cooperation is needed to seek solutions to the problems posed by rising greenhouse gases.

Considered a first step in a long diplomatic process, the Kyoto Protocol was an early and well-known agreement that emerged from the UNFCCC process. The protocol, which set modest targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was adopted in 1997 and ratified by most countries in the world, though not the United States and Australia. Its targets have been in force for over 180 signatory nations since early 2005. NCAR scientist Tom Wigley's research has shown that adherence to the Kyoto Protocol alone, without subsequent action, would have a minimal impact on global warming. However, he notes, "This does not mean that the actions implied by the Protocol are unnecessary."

An important UNFCCC meeting took place in 2009. The 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCC, or COP 15, met in Copenhagen, Denmark, December 7–18, to focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies beyond the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012.

Many U.S. cities and states have committed to reducing their output of greenhouse gases over the coming decades. Mitigation is also happening on the personal level (buying a fuel-thrifty or hybrid vehicle, for instance, or installing energy-saving light bulbs) and in private industry (a growing number of businesses and organizations have pledged to become carbon neutral).

Volunteer "citizen scientists" are recording their observations to provide information about our climate over time. Some researchers are tapping a rich historical record of bird migration and seeking new volunteers to report migration arrivals and departures. A collaboration between public and private agencies hosted by UCAR's Windows to the Universe encourages volunteers to report the timing of budburst in spring. Participants record when dormant plants produce leaves and their flower buds first open in response to climate signals.



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